Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.950649 2.265408 2.613726 3.027646 3.506045 4.041557 4.686517
2026-02-08 1.374307 1.772960 2.261006 2.901968 3.721362 4.733737 6.079989
2026-02-15 1.058133 1.487795 2.059072 2.873137 4.002783 5.514822 7.693487
2026-02-22 0.888958 1.343726 1.991755 2.980552 4.450041 6.552756 9.791850
2026-03-01 0.734398 1.182441 1.860598 2.958806 4.691007 7.317239 11.603614
2026-03-08 0.612830 1.044028 1.732828 2.909101 4.865461 7.988060 13.353170
2026-03-15 0.528329 0.947463 1.650554 2.910458 5.108938 8.784917 15.400636
2026-03-22 0.497324 0.934538 1.701332 3.136866 5.753356 10.316475 18.881067
2026-03-29 0.446674 0.877177 1.664518 3.200505 6.117087 11.408649 21.739489
2026-04-05 0.402700 0.824359 1.626561 3.253382 6.463591 12.507974 24.752599
2026-04-12 0.358143 0.762754 1.561997 3.243708 6.685806 13.399063 27.483684
2026-04-19 0.317594 0.702495 1.490591 3.208280 6.848761 14.191104 30.118104
2026-04-26 0.266615 0.613583 1.351195 3.019138 6.685262 14.342554 31.540476
2026-05-03 0.230388 0.551175 1.258620 2.916904 6.693564 14.855194 33.817088
2026-05-10 0.205465 0.510235 1.206485 2.895865 6.876687 15.765130 37.096224
2026-05-17 0.192693 0.495788 1.211789 3.006964 7.375912 17.437346 42.335896
2026-05-24 0.173149 0.461294 1.164727 2.986005 7.561002 18.420803 46.114178
2026-05-31 0.154482 0.425763 1.109550 2.936182 7.667882 19.234535 49.602082
2026-06-07 0.140740 0.400785 1.076754 2.937665 7.902809 20.387585 54.095190
2026-06-14 0.138957 0.408016 1.127877 3.166201 8.757079 23.190707 63.190518
2026-06-21 0.129882 0.393237 1.118436 3.230442 9.185394 24.968317 69.860146
2026-06-28 0.121205 0.378117 1.105756 3.283812 9.592319 26.745774 76.787131
2026-07-05 0.111065 0.356879 1.072676 3.274050 9.821224 28.077902 82.681456